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35 Years After the Baltic Way: Regional Unity in the Face of Russian Aggression

By Bridgette Lang, U.S. Department of State Rangel Fellow

On August 23, 1989, approximately two million people created a human chain from Tallinn to Vilnius to peacefully demonstrate their resistance to Soviet occupation. Held on the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that secretly gave the Soviet Union control of the Baltics, the Baltic Way demonstration successfully caught the attention of the world and challenged the Soviet Union to denounce the treaty.

The unity among the Baltics states, as demonstrated during the Baltic Way 35 years ago, continues to safeguard democracy today. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia now face a renewed threat from Russian neo-imperialism on their borders. After Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and full-fledged war in Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic states have created a united front and rallied around their neighbor. In addition to Russia, the Baltic states now must deal with Belarus, which has become little more than a staging area for Moscow to wage war on its peaceful neighbors.

Small states’ ability to forge alliances is paramount to their survival – particularly during this time of full-scale war on their borders. As members of the OSCE, NATO, and the EU, the Baltic states have used these platforms to promote joint policy, defense initiatives, and solidarity. The region is stronger because Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia stand together against an expansionist Russia.

Leading Support for Ukraine

All three Baltic countries understand that an investment in Ukraine’s victory is an investment in their own security. Since the start of the war, each country has spent between 1.5 to 1.8% of their annual GDP on aid to Ukraine. Together, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia make up three of the top five aid-giving countries in terms of percentage of GDP. 

The Baltics also have demonstrated that they view military aid to Ukraine as a long term investment by making upfront commitments. This year, the Lithuanian government announced that it will spend 0.4% of its GDP this year on military support and pledged continued aid worth up to €200 million through 2026. Similarly, the Estonian government has guaranteed to spend at least 0.25% of its annual GDP from 2024 to 2027. Unlike the other two countries, Latvia’s agreement spans a lengthy 10 years and gives 0.25% of Latvia’s annual GDP. 

In addition to monetary support, the Baltic states have also provided crucial logistical assistance, especially at the beginning of the war when the United States lacked direct access to deliver American-made weapons to Ukraine. Shortly after the invasion in 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken tweeted, “I expedited and authorized and we fully endorse transfers of defensive equipment @NATO Allies Estonia Latvia Lithuania are providing to Ukraine to strengthen its ability to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked and irresponsible aggression.” Their synchronization of policy and military operations drew international attention and encouraged other countries to join in aiding Ukraine.

In 2024, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia took their support for Ukraine a step further and publicly stated that they have considered sending troops to Ukraine if they requested this kind of assistance. Although it’s unclear if any of the Baltic states would send troops for frontline combat, they have agreed that training the Ukrainian military and logistical military support are feasible. Their borders and national security are fundamentally tied to Ukraine. With their willingness to put their own citizens on the line, the Baltics have demonstrated that they are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to support a Ukrainian victory. 

Bolstering Regional Security

If Russia is not sufficiently deterred, the countries of the Baltics are largely considered to be Russia’s next target for its expansionist, imperial goals. Domestic defense preparation today is critical if disaster does strike tomorrow. Earlier this year, the Baltic countries made a joint announcement about their plan to construct a defense line along their borders with Russia and Belarus. In accordance with NATO’s goals in the region, Estonia made an initial commitment to build 600 bunkers on their border by 2025. Together, the three militaries aim to achieve anti-mobility for Russian troops.

With major gas pipelines running across the Baltic seabed from Russia to western Europe, the Baltic Sea has become another “border” of concern. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia’s shared coastline has seen an increase in threatening activity from Russian ships and aircraft. Russia’s ministry of defense’s announced plans to extend its territorial waters next year, meaning that the Kremlin will see Finnish and Lithuanian areas of the sea as Russian. Baltic cooperation with NATO has expeditiously allowed for naval and aerial deterrence. This summer, 9,000 troops from 20 NATO countries participated in military exercises in the Baltic Sea region.

United States support has also enabled the Baltics to more robustly protect their territory with the help of American troops. Last year, the United States welcomed defense policy directors from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania at the Pentagon and finalized a bilateral defense cooperation roadmap for each country. According to the U.S. Embassy in Estonia, “The agreements convey the Secretary of Defense’s intention to provide heel-to-toe persistent rotational presence of U.S. forces in each Baltic State.” 

The nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – though relatively small in size and population – have demonstrated outstanding courage and leadership in the face of Russian aggression. The Baltics’ way of working with neighbors and allies should serve as a model for effective global cooperation during times of trouble. 

 

Check out past U.S. Helsinki Commission hearings, briefings, and events on the Baltics:

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