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Revolution in Armenia?

The Power and Prospects of the Protest Movement

Moderator

Everett Price

Policy Advisor

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe

Witnesses

Elen Aghekyan

Independent Research Analyst

Stephen Nix

Eurasia Regional Director

International Republican Institute

Under pressure from a surging popular protest movement, Armenia’s Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned on April 23, less than one week after taking office. The mass demonstrations were sparked by Armenia’s transition this month to a parliamentary system from a semi-presidential one. Small-scale protests emerged in mid-April as it became clear that parliament would elect Sargsyan, who served as president since 2008, to the newly empowered post of prime minister, and culminated with tens of thousands of demonstrators in Armenia’s central square.

Protestors met news of Sargsyan’s resignation with jubilation, but after securing its principal demand, the loosely organized, youth-led movement faces uncertain prospects going forward.

During the briefing, panelists discussed the key elements of the protests, the response from the U.S. and Russian governments, and Armenia’s political options moving forward.

The protestors were predominantly young people – including many high school and university students. Panelists noted that youth were motivated to protest primarily due to concerns over economic opportunities, which have not significantly improved under 10 years of rule by the Republican Party of Armenia. Independent Research Analyst Elen Agehkyan noted the charisma of protest leader Nikol Pashinyan as playing a major role in mobilizing protesters. Dressing simply and marching with protestors, Pashinyan was seen as a “people’s leader”.  Panelists also remarked that the protests were noteworthy for their nonviolent nature. Protestors did not even erupt into violence when Pashinyan was detained overnight.

Panelists also discussed the response from the U.S. and Russian governments. The International Republican Institute’s Regional Director for Eurasia Stephen Nix commended U.S. Ambassador Richard Mills for playing a positive role, noting that Ambassador Mills met with both the government and opposition and called on protestors to remain peaceful. The Russian government held a hands-off approach to the protests, releasing statements that the protests were strictly a domestic affair.

Mr. Nix further outlined the constitutional provisions governing Armenia’s transition of power. He discussed scenarios for the coming weeks that might require emergency elections, depending on the ability of a prime minister candidate to secure the parliament’s approval for his appointment and government program. Nix further addressed the importance of U.S. government support to develop Armenian public institutions, political parties, and civil society that will be essential to sustaining any momentum toward reform. 

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