Executive Summary:
Since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian sabotage campaigns across North America and Europe have accelerated. Calculated campaigns of hybrid warfare show that Russia’s antagonistic foreign policy knows no bounds. In conjunction with its war in Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously executing a shadow war on NATO to destabilize, distress, and deter the transatlantic alliance from its staunch support of Ukrainian sovereignty.
The efficacy of Russia’s active measures inside of NATO stems from its nature as a “below the threshold of war” means of attack. However, the escalation of Russia’s recent hybrid campaigns represent more than mere capers of destabilization. Rather, Russia is engaged in calculated posturing toward the transatlantic alliance to pair with its genocidal invasion of Ukraine. Hybrid campaigns can range from cyberattacks on train stations that cause scheduling delays to attempted assassination and terrorism plots; a deniable, one-off incident does not make a war in and of itself, but the scale and calculated nature of Russian hybrid threats within NATO borders since 2022 amount to a covert shadow war.
This report builds on the Helsinki Commission’s September 2024 hearing, Russia’s Shadow War on NATO, in which experts testified to the widespread and calculated efforts Moscow deploys to destabilize its democratic adversaries across the Atlantic. To visualize the breadth of the Kremlin’s efforts, Helsinki Commission staff have mapped nearly 150 hybrid operations executed in NATO territory occurring since the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that have been attributed to or suspected of Russia (see Figure 1). The identified hybrid operations fall into four categories: critical infrastructure attacks, violence campaigns, weaponized migration, and election interference and information campaigns.
It is critical that NATO leaders are united in their recognition of the intent and extent of Russia’s hybrid operations. Hybrid warfare efforts present real threats to society and democratic governance. NATO was founded to counter Russian aggression, and Russia’s ongoing attempts to undermine the security and stability of members of the alliance must be recognized as an affront to the foundations and core mission of the alliance.
